Sell the Farm
Alright, I know I’m beating a dead horse, but according to Adrien Wojnarowski, the Warriors are being aggressive in their pursuit of Dwight Howard. I hope the reports are true and that the Warriors are willing to take a “gamble,” but based on how the Chris Paul negotiations went, I doubt it.
Wojnarowski mentions in the article that,”Most teams aren’t willing to gut rosters to get Howard only to lose him to free agency in the summer”
Why the hell not?
It looks like the Warriors are headed for another pro-rated 35-win season and losing their protected 1st rounder, leaving them with essentially no hope to contend for a title in the foreseeable future.
By gutting your roster, what do the Warriors really have to lose? If Dwight Howard stays, they have their superstar. As I outlined previously, if you don’t have one of the Elite 9, your chances of winning a title are slim to none. If Dwight leaves, the Warriors will have cap flexibility and a talent-depleted roster leading to high lottery picks (sans 2012 first rounder most likely).
The two main arguments against this idea are that 1) the Warriors will, based on past history, find a way to blow those high lottery picks on busts, and 2) the Warriors will use that cap space to overpay somebody, crippling their flexibility (e.g. Corey Maggette and David Lee). But in my opinion, it’s better to have a chance to blow a high lottery pick that can potentially change the franchise for the next decade (e.g. Duncan, Rose, Durant, etc.) than to hope that a mid-first rounder establishes himself as a solid role player off the bench.
In terms of cap space, that money doesn’t necessarily have to be used to sign free agents. I know Sam Presti and the Oklahoma City Thunder are the model franchise right now, but look at how they used their cap space. They could’ve splurged on a free agent like David Lee or Paul Millsap, but they didn’t. Instead they used their cap space to stock assets and extend their star players acquired through top 5 lottery picks.
The Thunder acquired Eric Maynor, who was a 1st round pick in that year’s draft, by using their cap space. They were able to absorb Matt Harpring’s $6.5M expiring contract, giving the Thunder another asset and savingUtah a big luxury tax bill.
Sam Presti did the same thing, in what ended up being one of his best moves since he took over as general manager. Presti turned Rashard Lewis (who was leaving as a free agent anyway) into a $9M trade exception. The Suns then traded Kurt Thomas and two first round picks for that trade exception, essentially saving them from paying a $16M luxury tax bill. In 2008, the Thunder used one of those first rounders on none other than Sergeballu LaMu Sayonga Loom Walahas Jonas Hugo Ibaka.
Again, cap space doesn’t necessarily mean splurging on free agents. Cap space gives teams flexibility to make moves.
If the goal is to win a championship, I don’t see how a fan would even hesitate to pull the trigger on the Chris Paul trade when it was on the table or this trade for Dwight Howard. If the Warriors make the trade for Dwight, no matter what he decides to do in the offseason, the Warriors are left in a better position to win a title.
But fans aren’t the ones with the ability to pull the trigger. Fans don’t have to worry about a $450M dollar investment. Fans don’t have to worry about their self-imposed “Big Things are Here” expectations. Fans just have to watch a mediocre product with little to no hope of becoming a contender.
