The Tank Express movement is in full force. With each stop, like at Oracle Arena last night against the Lakers, the train picks up a few more riders. However, the Warriors have dug themselves a three-win deficit in the Top-Seven Sweepstakes, which makes losing their draft pick an all too realistic possibility, no matter how tough their April schedule is.
With that said, what impact player would the Warriors pick at seven if they do keep their pick? Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be long gone. Andre Drummond will be gone. Thomas Robinson too. That potentially leaves guys like Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Jeremy Lamb, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III and a few other good, but not great prospects. (I share the same concerns as everybody else about Harrison Barnes. He isn’t extremely explosive, he doesn’t get to the hole, and he disappears in big games. However, I still feel like he will be a better professional player than a collegiate player with the wide-open nature of the NBA.)
Intuitively, it’s almost always better to have a pick than to not have a pick, but playing devil’s advocate for a second, at what point does ridding themselves of the trade for Marcus Williams’ fat corpse become more beneficial than the seventh pick in the 2012 draft?
The conditional nature of the draft pick that extends over a multi-year period is what is potentially haunting the Warriors. The NBA doesn’t allow a team to trade first round picks in back-to-back seasons, which means that until the Warriors pay out their debt to Utah via New Jersey, they can’t trade their first round pick.
Here are the conditions of the trade: the pick in 2012 is top-seven protected, as previously outlined. In 2013 and also in 2014, the pick is top-six protected. If the Warriors haven’t paid out by 2014, the pick becomes second rounders in 2014 and 2016.
In short, the Warriors can’t trade their 2013 first round pick because they might be trading their 2012 pick and they can’t trade their 2014 pick because they might be trading their 2013 pick. Marcus Williams could potentially be haunting the Warriors five years after he last stepped foot on an NBA court.
If the Warriors do have their first round pick this June, it’s going to be like the Dwight Howard situation. Since Dwight only opted into the final year of his contract instead of signing an extension, this year’s season-long drama will be on re-peat-peat-peat-peat-peat next season. If all goes well for the Warriors next season – Andrew Bogut and Stephen Curry are healthy- keeping their top-six protected first round will be an afterthought. However, if injuries pile up again, the Tank Express will pick up even more steam in hopes of keeping their top-six protected pick in 2013.
At some point, it’s possible that the flexibility of being able to trade a first round pick outweighs the benefit of having their top-seven pick this season. If nothing else, it’s something to think about – especially since with every meaningless win, losing that pick becomes more of a reality.
http://www.bayareaball.com/teams/golden-state-warriors/the-ghost-of-marcus-williams/
No rooting interest in the NCAA Tournament? Join a pool. No rooting interest in the Super Bowl? Buy a few squares at work or bet on the National Anthem. No interest in baseball and/or no interest in any team other than your team? Like everything else, bet on it.
A huge knock on baseball is the way it’s covered. ESPN turns into the Yankees and Red Sox Programming Network during baseball season and in short, nobody on the West Coast really cares. Like, at all. How do you fix that? You guessed it, bet on it.
On New Years Day 2011, my cousin, Grant, and I made a 20-year bet on the Yankees and Red Sox. The line for combined World Series titles between the Yankees and Red Sox was set at an agreed upon 5. I have the over. Now, Terry Francona popping pills like “The Situation” from Jersey Shore? Fascinating. Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and co. drinking beers during games? What in the hell is going on out there in Title Town? Alex Rodriguez went to Germany to get treatment on his knee and shoulder? Thank you, Kobe! (You’re Welcome #KobeSystem).
I care about Carl Crawford’s rehabilitation. I care about Joba Chamberlain having his leg amputated after jumping on a trampoline with his kids. I actually care about the Yankees and Red Sox - all thanks to money.
So sure, whether you’re a Giants fan or an A’s fan, Opening Day is right around the corner. I can’t wait until Tim Lincecum takes the hill in Arizona. I can’t wait to see Buster Posey take his first at-bat since getting trampled by Scott Cousins. I can’t wait to see Brandon Belt in the three-hole in Fresno. Wait a second…
But I also can’t wait to see Justin Upton step into the box. I can’t wait to see that god-awful monstrosity also known as a home run display to go off in Marlins Park after a Hanley Ramirez home run. Because I have money on it.
I did it with the Super Bowl and less profitably with March Madness, so here are my 2012 Baseball Over/Unders. Because everything is more interesting with money on it.
Curtis Granderson Over 29.5 Home Runs
Curtis Granderson is a dead pull hitter (37 of his 41 home runs in 2011 were to the right of dead center), which is tailor made for the short porch in Yankee Stadium. Interestingly, though, he also hit 20 home runs on the road last season. Betting the under is essentially saying that Granderson’s 2011 was a fluke and there will be a regression of epic proportions in 2012 (think Adam Dunn). But even if there is a decent-sized regression, I still have 11 home runs of wiggle room. Taking his development as a hitter into consideration, as well as the fact that he has topped the 29 home run mark in two of the last three seasons, I see no reason but to bet the over. In size.
Matt Kemp Over 29.5 Home Runs
Before last season, Kemp predicted he would go 40-40. He fell one home run short of doing just that. This season, he’s calling his shot like Babe Ruth in the 1932 World Series: 50-50. Even as a Giants fan, his talent is undeniable. The only things that can keep him under this number are injuries and Rihanna. Tebow, I hope I lose this bet.
Justin Upton Over 29.5 Home Runs
29.5 seems to be the magic number this year. Of the three bets, I like this one the least even though Upton is my favorite non-Giants player. If healthy, this bet is a winner. He is coming off a breakout season in which he was fourth in NL MVP voting and he’s only 24 years old entering the prime of his career. But he is rarely healthy. In his first three full seasons leading up to last season, he played 108, 138, and 133 games, respectively. If he can stay healthy and keep that contact rate at or above what it was last season, this bet is going over. However, those are big ifs and my wager size will be indicative of those concerns.
Adrian Gonzalez Over 32 Home Runs
According to Matthew Berry, Adrian Gonzalez hasn’t been completely healthy in two seasons. With that said, he still hit 58 home runs combined. Now that he’s completely healthy, I’m expecting the kind of numbers we saw in 2008 and 2009, but adjusted to playing at Fenway Park for half of his games.
Hanley Ramirez Over 21.5 Home Runs
Like Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez’ talent is undeniable. Now that he’s said to be happy, healthy, and hungry (figuratively), he looks primed to return to his 2008 form. Others are skeptical, and rightfully so, but I expect big things from Hanley in 2012.
Tim Lincecum Over 14.5 Wins
It really can’t get worse for the Giants’ offense than it was in 2011 when the Giants scored an astoundingly low 570 runs. If the Giants’ offense can improve only marginally, I think Tim Lincecum will be a 15+ win pitcher in 2012 like he was in each of his first three full Major League seasons.
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 86 Wins
I just think the Diamondbacks are a very good team. They’re deep and even better on paper than last season’s 94-win team with the additions of Jason Kubel and Trevor Cahill. There might be a little bit of a let down after potentially overachieving last season, but it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if they won the National League pennant.
New York Yankees Over 93.5 Wins
The Yankees needed more horses in the rotation. Now they have them. With the additions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda, to go along with CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova, starting pitching shouldn’t be an issue this season. I also like the fact that winning your division is of utmost importance now that there are two Wild Card winners that have to play in a one-game playoff. The Yankees will have the petal to the metal all season.
TampaBay Rays Over 87 Wins
With David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, and Wade Davis in the rotation, with Joe Madden (whose teams always seem to overachieve), and the fact that Evan Longoria still hasn’t had an MVP caliber season, chalk them up for 88+ wins.
http://www.bayareaball.com/teams/san-francisco-giants/let-the-fun-begin-2012-mlb-overunders/
I’m currently on a five-hour flight from Oakland to Hawaii. When you’re trapped on a plane sitting next to people that apparently never learned about personal space, a lot of things tend to go through your head. I’ve thought about how much I’d pay to forgo the rest of this flight and be in Hawaii (like a time machine) and I’m at $100. That number goes up every time this dude next to me bumps me with his Buster Posey-esque leg.
Side story: Last Monday, while the fans were booing Joe Lacob, I was having a game-long battle for arm rest territory. There was a stranger on my right and she had her friend on her right. But she didn’t lean toward her friend; she leaned toward my right arm rest. Yes, mine. Maybe I’m just stubborn (or just bored during that pathetic first half showing), but I decided some time before the National Anthem that that arm rest was going to be mine. That girl would not budge. It was like Olajuwon and Shaq battling for post position in the 1995 NBA Finals - elbow nudges and slight body movements to get the upper hand. It was a 12-round classic, but I won by unanimous decision.
Brandon Belt
If one of the Giants’ best hitters and only blue chip prospect (I’ll give you Gary Brown if you want) doesn’t have a spot in the Opening Day lineup because of one (potentially two) marginal upgrades in the outfield, it will just be another case of #BochyLogic - especially since the Giants scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball last season.
As my Bay Area Ball colleague (@RoneFace) put it, “It’s not like Belt puts up great numbers in Triple A, Winter Ball, and Spring Training. There’s no consistency.”
He’s obviously being facetious, but his sarcastic tone emphasizes how truly ludicrous it would be if Belt isn’t starting in Arizona on Opening Day.
ESPN writer and former Blue Jays’ scout, Keith Law, was asked if he’d rather have Brandon Belt or Freddie Freeman, the runner up in the 2011 Rookie of the Year voting. He responded, “Belt, easily.”
But Belt might not even crack the Opening Day lineup for this anemic offensive team?
The drink cart comes around three times on this five-hour flight. They just used two of them in the first 75 minutes. That’s like consuming an obscene amount of alcohol at Oracle Arena and vomiting by halftime. There is a limit. Spread it out for optimal effectiveness and enjoyment.
The Brow
What can Brow do for you? Well, he dominates defensively and on the glass, and shows the offensive potential to be a perennial All-Star for the next decade. Between Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-GilCHRIST, Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague, and Doron Lamb, this team is oozing first round picks. They are appointment television. And right now, while Kentucky is playing Baylor for a birth in the Final Four, I’m stuck on this plane next to Thunder Thighs. I didn’t take the Kentucky game into consideration when I came up with the $100 figure. I’d pay $20 to watch that game right now so bump it up to $120.
I guess it isn’t the end of the world. I’ll still be able to watch this game and every other Kentucky victory from this season get forfeited in a couple years.
Sweaty Scenario
The Warriors have a daunting April schedule as I outlined last week. They play 16 games in 26 days. 12 of them are on the road, and the only below .500 teams they play are Portland, Minnesota (on the last of a back-to-back-to-back), and New Orleans. If I had to set an over/under for April victories, I’d set it at 2.5 and would lean under. However, I still don’t think the Warriors will lose enough games to end up in the bottom seven to keep their first round pick.
But imagine this for a second: the Warriors end up tied for seventh worst. They lose the coin toss leaving them with the eighth-best chance to win the lottery (and in grave danger of losing their first round pick). And then the unthinkable happens and they win the lottery.
Can you imagine the whirlwind of emotions within that stretch from tie-breaker to draft lottery? It would be sort of like when Boston had the worst record, lost out on a chance at Greg Oden and Kevin Durant because of the ping pong balls, but then traded for one of the best power forwards and shooters in league history, vaulting them from cellar dweller into the NBA’s elite.
A better example was when Washington was tied with the Warriors for the fourth-worst record, lost the tie-breaker, and ended up winning the John Wall Sweepstakes.
Or the Warriors could just lose their pick and the world can continue rotating on its axis like usual.
The elderly flight attendant just talked about sticking tips down her shirt. Aaaand that’s my cue to go to sleep.
http://www.bayareaball.com/teams/san-francisco-giants/thoughts-from-30000-feet/
Anonymous asked: How did your girls basketball team do last week?
Both teams played hard.
When looking at statistics, sample size is everything. If Andris Biedrins made the first two free throws of his NBA career, you can’t conclude that he is a good free throw shooter. There needs to be a bigger sample size. Obviously. So when looking at Buster Posey’s home/road splits, I acknowledge that over the last two seasons (2009 excluded due to sporadic playing time) he only has a little over 500 career at-bats.
With that said, his home/road splits are interesting. Let’s take a look at his slash lines by season.
Batting average / On-base percentage / Slugging percentage
2010
Home: .258 / .304 / .419
Road: .351 / .406 / .587
2011
Home: .242 / .373 / .323
Road: .310 / .364 / .430
In his career, he is hitting 84 points higher on the road, his on-base percentage is astonishingly higher on the road, and there is a bigger disparity in slugging percentage than 2010 Aubrey Huff v. 2011 Aubrey Huff.
In 2011, Aubrey Huff slugged .370 and was one of the worst starting first basemen in baseball. Posey’s slugging percentage at home is .388. In 2010, Aubrey Huff slugged .506. He was seventh in MVP voting. Posey’s slugging percentage on the road is .536.
It’s possible that the numbers can simply be attributed toAT&TPark. AT&T is a notorious pitcher’s park so the splits seem fairly intuitive. If you look at the other Giants’ players, however, the picture becomes a little murkier.
Over the last three seasons, Pablo Sandoval has faired much better atAT&TPark.
Home: .336 / .382 / .537
Road: .273 / .331 / .467
In Aubrey Huff’s two seasons with the Giants, he has been much more productive on the road.
Freddy Sanchez, has had one better year at home (2010) and one better year on the road (2011).
It is entirely possible that these “trends” are just year-to-year fluctuations. It’s possible that these numbers aren’t representative of anything because the sample size might not be large enough. I don’t know what the threshold for at-bats is until the numbers do become representative, but we might not be there yet with Posey.
Regardless, it will be interesting to keep an eye on his splits on his road back to recovery.
http://www.bayareaball.com/teams/san-francisco-giants/buster-poseys-homeroad-splits/
I just wanted to post this so I can laugh at it when I’m old.
[11:36] jrichordieflyin: name a better snack than the balls in cheez-it party mix
[11:37] grantmiz1: pleaseee
[11:37] grantmiz1: gardettos and its not close
[11:38] jrichordieflyin: lmaooooo
[11:38] jrichordieflyin: thats like saying dorell wright is the next lebron james
[11:38] grantmiz1: wow
[11:39] grantmiz1: cheez-it party mix wishes it was gardettos
[11:39] jrichordieflyin: like, dorell is alright, he’s good enough when you’re hungry, but if you have a choice, you go with lebron without thinking twice
[11:40] grantmiz1: i agree that lebron is better than dorrell
[11:40] jrichordieflyin: cheez-it party mix is the lebron of snacks
[11:41] grantmiz1: definitely not
[11:41] grantmiz1: ask 20 people what the best snack is
[11:41] jrichordieflyin: blashphemous
[11:41] grantmiz1: under 5 will say cheez-it party mix
[11:41] jrichordieflyin: zero will say gardettos
[11:41] jrichordieflyin: most wont even know what gardettos are
[11:42] grantmiz1: i never said gardettos are the lebron of snacks
[11:42] grantmiz1: but it is the bes
[11:42] grantmiz1: *best
[11:42] grantmiz1: that makes sense ^
[11:42] jrichordieflyin: no it doesnt
[11:42] grantmiz1: yes, 90% of the world population may not know what gardettos are
[11:42] grantmiz1: that doesn’t mean gardettos are not the best
[11:43] grantmiz1: that makes sense
[11:44] jrichordieflyin: but im not referring to lebron in the sense that he’s known
[11:44] jrichordieflyin: im just using lebron as the pinnacle of snacks
[11:45] grantmiz1: there’s no weak link in gardettos
[11:45] grantmiz1: you know the rice crackers you get at costco, there’s weak links in there
[11:46] grantmiz1: the seasoning
[11:46] grantmiz1: perfect
[11:47] jrichordieflyin: the dark ones
[11:47] jrichordieflyin: weak link
[11:47] jrichordieflyin: no racism
[11:47] grantmiz1: the hard ones?
[11:48] jrichordieflyin: yes
[11:48] grantmiz1: you just have to keep those in your mouth a few seconds longer
[11:48] jrichordieflyin: pause
[11:49] grantmiz1: lolllll
[11:49] grantmiz1: can’t just start chomping away at those
[11:49] jrichordieflyin: which means you have to pick through the bag when you eat
[11:49] jrichordieflyin: dont have to do that with party mix
[11:50] jrichordieflyin: unless youre in the mood for a perfect pretzel over a perfect cheez-it
[11:50] grantmiz1: cheez-its are gay
[11:50] grantmiz1: poor man’s gold fish
[11:50] jrichordieflyin: wowwwww.
[11:51] jrichordieflyin: cheez-its are about as gay as derek jeter
[11:52] grantmiz1: wrong
[11:53] jrichordieflyin: that’s your opinion
[11:53] jrichordieflyin: but it’s a wrong opinion
[11:54] grantmiz1: i’m just saying my weakest link is better than your weakest linnk
[11:54] jrichordieflyin: but i thought there wasnt a weakest link
[11:54] jrichordieflyin: but say there is
[11:54] jrichordieflyin: and mine is worse than yours
[11:55] jrichordieflyin: my top picks are better than yours
[11:55] jrichordieflyin: id rather have a bunch of top 5 picks every year with a couple at of the first round once in a while than a bunch of picks at the back end of the lottery
[11:56] jrichordieflyin: at the end of the first round*
[11:56] grantmiz1: I completely agree with that ^
[11:57] jrichordieflyin: party mix is the top 5 picks
[11:57] jrichordieflyin: youre picking guys like patrick o’bryant in the mid-lottery
[11:57] jrichordieflyin: with a few guys like paul pierce falling to you once in a while
[11:58] jrichordieflyin: you’re solid, but im hand picking guys like dwight, rose, lebron, and durant.
[11:59] grantmiz1: but you’re led by cheez its
[11:59] grantmiz1: cheez it party mix
[11:59] jrichordieflyin: ill take the jr giddens every once in a while if im picking from those guys most of the time
[11:59] jrichordieflyin: you dont even have a lead
[11:59] jrichordieflyin: you’re the denver nuggets
[12:00] jrichordieflyin: solid, but no lead guy
[12:01] grantmiz1: the cheez it is your leader?
[12:01] jrichordieflyin: yes, a great leader
[12:01] jrichordieflyin: a hall of fame leader
[12:02] grantmiz1: he’s always on the block
[12:02] grantmiz1: gold fish can step in and do what he does
[12:02] grantmiz1: tomorrow
[12:02] jrichordieflyin: sure, exchange lebron for durant and i’m still a contender
[12:02] jrichordieflyin: you have fun with ty lawson
[12:03] grantmiz1: all these assumptions
[12:03] jrichordieflyin: who’s your leader then?
[12:03] jrichordieflyin: who’s going to take the last shot?
[12:03] grantmiz1: sort of like a pick your poison type of thing
[12:04] jrichordieflyin: but that poison isn’t potent
[12:04] grantmiz1: opinion
[12:04] jrichordieflyin: the right opinion
[12:04] grantmiz1: in your opinion
[12:05] jrichordieflyin: so you acknowledge that you don’t have a go-to guy
[12:06] jrichordieflyin: I know it isn’t pretzels, because i have his better twin on my team
[12:06] jrichordieflyin: i have blake griffin, you have taylor griffin
[12:07] grantmiz1: if i had to pick one
[12:07] grantmiz1: its the sesame seed dough chip
[12:08] jrichordieflyin: lmaooo. that’s like having monta ellis as your go-to guy
[12:09] jrichordieflyin: always going to be an argument over if he’s the right guy. does he need to go. is he too small. is the team better in somebody elses hands
[12:10] grantmiz1: ^ that is all true about monta ellis
[12:10] grantmiz1: i agree
[12:10] jrichordieflyin: and the sesame seed chip is monta ellis
[12:12] jrichordieflyin: if sesame seed chip is your go-to guy, your team has a ceiling that mini me could touch
[12:15] grantmiz1: i could say your leader, cheez it, is like al harrington
[12:16] grantmiz1: always on the block
[12:16] grantmiz1: looking for a home
[12:16] jrichordieflyin: but you’d be wrong. cheez it has been in the game and thrived for decades
[12:16] grantmiz1: thrived?
[12:16] jrichordieflyin: thrived
[12:17] jrichordieflyin: perennial all-snack team
[12:17] grantmiz1: nope
[12:20] grantmiz1: ask anyone if they want cheez-its or gold fish
[12:21] grantmiz1: 50-50 split
[12:21] jrichordieflyin: its a kobe vs lebron argument though
[12:21] jrichordieflyin: not choosing between gallinari or lawson
[12:22] grantmiz1: pleasee
[12:23] grantmiz1: cheez its are like wheat things
[12:23] grantmiz1: *thins
[12:23] grantmiz1: can’t really get excited
[12:24] jrichordieflyin: similar, except for the fact that cheez its are good
[12:24] jrichordieflyin: youre getting excited about some sesame seed chip thing?
[12:24] jrichordieflyin: thats like saying, “im excited for the pistons to come to town”
[12:26] jrichordieflyin: all i know is one of your best players has a better twin that plays for my team
[12:26] jrichordieflyin: my team has a lead-dog
[12:26] jrichordieflyin: that is proven
[12:26] jrichordieflyin: and has an up and comer in the puffy ball ready to take the torch when cheez it is ready
[12:27] grantmiz1: kevin o’shea said puffed=wimp
[12:27] grantmiz1: and he won the heisman
[12:28] jrichordieflyin: lmaooo. after i read that, i just imagined dirk yelling, “shut it downnnn! let’s go hoooooooome!”
[12:29] jrichordieflyin: alright, i guess we’ll end it with that
[12:29] jrichordieflyin: ill see you in the finals…if you make it that far
[12:29] jrichordieflyin: gotta go to work
[12:29] jrichordieflyin: later
[12:29] grantmiz1: later
[12:30] grantmiz1: gg
Trade Summary: The Warriors trade Stephen Jackson to San Antonio for Richard Jefferson and a 1st round pick.
http://www.bayareaball.com/teams/golden-state-warriors/snap-reaction-to-the-stephen-jackson-trade/
Trade summary: Warriors trade Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown in exchange for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson
I can see why this trade will upset some Warriors fans. They are essentially throwing in the towel on the season. Monta was also a fan favorite and will probably go down as one of the most under-appreciated players in Warriors history. But if you look at it from a broader perspective, it gives the Warriors the potential to win more games in the future than the previous flawed team.
http://www.bayareaball.com/teams/golden-state-warriors/snap-reaction-to-the-warriors-trading-monta-ellis/
http://www.bayareaball.com/teams/san-francisco-giants/tim-lincecums-regression/
I went to a Little League game the other day just to relive some memories and watch some kids play baseball. There are a few things that I realized while watching:
Essentially, let the kids play. I mean, it is about the kids.They’re going to make mistakes. They’re going to swing at pitches over their heads. They’re going to boot routine ground balls. Shit happens, man. Just don’t be so up in their asses that they’re afraid to make mistakes. If a kid swings and misses and then immediately looks at their dad to see what his reaction is, something is wrong.